Page 61 - EM Export Magazine Perfumery edition

REPORT

growing from 147 million in 2022 to 213 million in
2025, which represents a 45% growth in traffic over
the three years but a 1% decline in the overall share
of international traffic, from 11% to 10%. The UK’s
international traffic will grow by 41% over the three-
year period, from 123 to 174 million passengers,
with an 8% share of international traffic in 2025,
also a 1% decline on the 2022 share. Germany’s
traffic will also see strong growth – of 42% - with 135
million passengers in 2025, up from 95 million in
2022, while France will see a slightly slower growth
of 29% between 2022 and 2025, from 71 million to
92 million passengers. India on the other hand is to
experience significantly stronger passenger growth
with 71% more passengers in 2025 at 84 million, up
from 49 million in 2022. The research also identifies
certain outliers in terms of traffic growth between 20 ranking nationalities for theoretical travel retail
2022 and 2025, which is explained by the varying market value in 2025 are South Korea, which moves
degrees of flight restrictions and the different pace into 11th position, with $1,2 billion theoretical
of reopening of borders to international travellers, market value and Singapore in 12th position with
in the wake of the Covid 19 pandemic. Many Asia just over $1 billion. Australia is in 13th with just
Pacific markets, including Japan, South Korea less than $880 billion and Poland in 14th position
and Thailand, still had travel restrictions in place as mentioned, with $821 billion. Thailand, the
for much of 2022, resulting in the still low traffic Philippines and Hong Kong are also all new entrants
volumes. The research, which identifies the leading to the top 20 ranking in 2025, while Pakistan and
20 nationalities for theoretical market value in 2025, Ireland remain in the top 20, albeit falling to 18th
reveals that there is very little movement among the and 20th position respectively. Mohn commented:
top ten ranking nationalities for theoretical market “The theoretical market value analysis is extremely
value between 2022 and 2025. Given the strong useful for airports and their commercial partners
traffic growth and average spend of the Japanese in the markets concerned as well as for those
travellers in particular, Japan enters the top ten situated in destinations that are popular among
ranking for theoretical market value in 2025, to these leading nationalities for duty free spend. The
fourth position, behind the United States, Germany analysis becomes infinitely more meaningful when
and the United Kingdom. The US remains in conducted by location or category for example. It’s
number one position with just under US$6 billion in important to monitor those nationalities that are
theoretical market value, up from just over $4 billion clear outliers to ensure that the product mix and
in 2022. The US market will weigh approximately marketing mix remains relevant to the emerging
11% of the total global GTR value in 2025, down from nationalities.” “B1S partners use the tool to extract
13% in 2022. The weighting also excludes Chinese segment specific reports to analyse the growth
shopper behaviour and their potential market value potential of the business for a specific category,
in 2025, as explained earlier. Germany remains in in a specific or multiple locations and often for a
second position with $4,1 billion in 2025, up from specific demographic or segment, Mohn added.
$2,8 billion in 2022, representing 9% share of the “This can be drilled down to a much deeper level,
global market in 2025 and the UK is projected to by extrapolating the data for specific nationalities or
maintain third place at $3,8 billion, up from $2,7 markets, even by individual airport”, he concluded.
billion in 2022 with a 7% share, down from 8% in
2022. France, India the Netherlands, Spain, Italy
and Canada all remain in the top ten markets from More information
2022 to 2025; only Poland slips out of the top ten on m1nd-set’s research
and down to 14th position. newcomers in the top- and consultancy services
can be obtained from
m1nd- set by writing to 59
info@m1nd-set.com.